Global Cotton Consumption Forecast to Rise Further in 2010/11

Improved global economic growth prospects are expected to expand mill use by major consumers such as China, India and Brazil.

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) July 2010 publication of the World Economic Outlook puts global economic growth at 4.6 percent and 4.3 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively, compared with the -0.6 percent growth in 2009.

The IMF estimates 2010 economic growth in China, India, and Brazil at 10.5 percent, 9.4 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, each higher than the previous year.

In response to the expected economic gains, 2010/11 mill use in China and India is forecast at 49.0 million bales and 20.4 million bales, up 3 percent and 4 percent, respectively, from a year ago. Brazil is forecast to increase 2010/11 mill use 5 percent from a year ago to 4.6 million bales. Pakistan’s 2010/11 cotton consumption is forecast at 11.6 million bales, up 1 percent from the previous year, while Turkey’s is expected to increase 2 percent to 5.7 million bales from a year earlier. Mill use in the United States is not expected to change from the previous year. Figure 4 shows the relationship between global cotton consumption for the August-July marketing year and GDP for the calendar year corresponding to the
second part of the marketing year.